Allan Lichtman Prediction for 2024: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are set to debate on September 10. But Famous historian Allan Lichtman already believes he knows the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Allan Lichtman teaches at American University. He has a strong track record for predicting elections over the past 40 years. Lichtman has successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
In 2016, Lichtman correctly predicted Trump’s victory. Trump even sent him a note saying, “GOOD CALL!” Lichtman believes President Biden’s dropping out of the race will be a big mistake for the Democrats. He shared this view after the first debate between Trump and Biden in 2024. His opinion sparked an online debate with another well-known forecaster Nate Silver.
Lichtman’s model doesn’t rely on polls. Lichtman said his prediction focuses on 13 questions. He believes these 13 questions are the keys to predict who will win the White House. These questions are based on historical patterns rather than current events.
The keys include whether:
- The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections
- The sitting president is running for re-election
- The White House party is avoiding a primary contest
- There is a third-party challenger
- The short-term economy is strong
- The long-term economy growth has been as good as the last two terms
- The White House party has made major changes to national policy
- There is sustained social unrest during the term
- The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic
- The challenger is uncharismatic
- The incumbent is charismatic
- The White House party has major failure in foreign policy
- The White House party has foreign policy success.
Eight of the keys are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Trump. He also further added –
Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.
Harris is going to win the White House, he said. “At least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
Despite the unusual circumstances of the 2024 election, including legal cases and even an assassination attempt, Lichtman is confident his model will still work.